The End of the World is Just the Beginning
Peter Zeihan
Summary
A book on geopolitics and how the world is about to be in for a rude awakening as globalization disintegrates written one of the world's foremost geopolitical thinkers
Rating: 5/5
Notes
We have been living in a perfect moment and it is passing
Geopolitically and demographically speaking, for most of the last 75 years we have been living in a perfect moment
The American-led order is giving way to disorder
The 2020s will see the collapse of consumption, production, investment and trade almost everywhere while globalization shatters into pieces
The ‘American story’ is the story of the perfect geography of success. That geography determines not only America’s power but also America’s role in the world
No country that has ever industrialized has ever managed the process without crippling social and political mayhem. Industrialization is necessary and unavoidable, but it is hard
We all come to think of the post cold-war world as normal. It is not
Globalization was always dependent upon America’s commitment to the global world order and that order hasn’t served America’s strategic interests since the Berlin wall fell in 1989
Every country that has a population crash w/ more old folks than children and runs out of young adults - these counties will never recover
China will go from pre-industrial levels of health and wealth to post-industrial demographic collapse in a single lifetime, much like rest of the world
If/when global flows of products and food are interrupted, the population and political and economic maps will change
De-globalization doesn’t simply mean a darker, poorer world, it’s something worse - an unraveling
The period of 1980-2015 has simply been a unique, isolated, blessed moment in time. A moment that has ended. A moment that will certainly not come again in our lifetimes
We grew up in a world of more, now we’re going into a world of less
All economic models are systems of distribution: who gets what, when and how
We are entering a period of extreme transformation w/ our strategic, political, economic, technological, demographic and cultural norms all in flux at the same time
America (w/ the Mexicans) face the least traumatic adjustment to the world-which-will-soon-be. America’s population is young enough to transition over decades to the rest of the world which will face severe population collapse
Transportation is the ultimate enabler of globalization
Russia’s grain exports at the end of the 1800s was directly related to them building their rail network
While the industrial revolution made it much cheaper to ship products from A to B, it took the American global order to make transport much safer
The solution for water transport isn’t simply more or bigger ships but more and bigger ships
The defining trait in globalization is safe, cheap transport. Inhibit that and everything simply falls apart
China’s embracing of narcissistic nationalism risks spawning internal unrest that will consume the CCP. It’s what has happened repeatedly in China’s history when the government can’t supply people with goods
Everything we know about modern manufacturing ends the first time anyone shoots a commercial ship
The Europeans are more dependent on energy imports than the Asians
The defining characteristic of the new era is that we will no longer all be on the same side
The rules of finance in the 2020s will change again into something we’ve never seen before
Currency is about trust and not a store of value
Launching a global currency system requires 2 things - 1 is a single economic and military structure spanning multiple continents and 2 is a large enough vault of precious metals to back the currency
- America supplied the Allies with resources during WWII and was always paid in golf so the American ‘s had the largest gold reserve in the world post WWII
The Chinese financial model is endless money printing, even more than the Americans
Europe never recovered from the pooping of its Euro Bubble with Greece in 2012
The European system (Euro) is going through the motions until the common currency shatters
When capital is cheap enough, pigs can fly. Once!
Author’s bullish on Indonesia
Inflation will continue to be all over the world
Expect a lot more populism
Several oil production zones face complete collapse in the years to come
After the cold war, the Americans had become economically trapped in their own outdated security policy
Oil is a huge inelastic good meaning decreased supply and increased demand leads to wild price swings
Expect oil prices to be wildly erratic
We need to green the grid before we expand it
The days of reliable inexpensive oil shipments are coming to an end. We’re entering a world Jack Sparrow would find familiar. This is not a game for the weak
Greentech requires 2-5 times the copper and chromium of traditional methods of generating power as well as manganese, zinc, graphite and silicon
Iron ore is the most important material as it is the base material
China is the global iron ore market importing 3x the next country
Bauxite is integral as it is the raw material to aluminum
¾ of world’s copper ends up in some sort of electronic application
Cobalt is absolutely necessary for future batteries (almost all from Congo)
Rare earths are used in almost everything in the modern era
China does 90% of the global rare earth production and processing
80% of the world’s largest quality quartz that make electronic grade silicon comes from a single mine in North Carolina. America will soon have resource control of the base material of the digital age
China makes lower-end products compared to its Asian counterparts
Europe is reliant on exports and mostly to America
Most Chinese firms cannot function without American participation
Colombia may be the next massive hub for workers for North America
SE Asia without China will enter manufacturing in a big way
Combine Japanese tech, military and wealth of India and SE Asia’s manufacturing potential, demographics and industrial inputs and you might have one of the great alliances of the 21st century
The Chinese are utterly dependent on German machines to maintain their industrial behemoth
‘Food is fleeting but hunger is forever’ - agriculture is the most important factor as governments have fallen more to food failures than anything else
Everything became possible after humans learned to grow wheat
Natural gas and oil are essential to all nitrogen-based fertilizers which is essential to all agriculture
Farmers need phosphate and potassium fertilizers for most food (also potash - Canada is big supplier)
France, US and Canada have enough food, fertilizer and equipment to continue producing their own products
The absolute biggest loser of a food shortage will be China
Likely in excess of 1 billion people will starve to death and 2 billion will suffer chronic malnutrition while some 2/3rds of China faces one of the two fates
The history of the next 50 years will be the story of how we dealt with, or fail to deal with, the coming food shortages and how those shortages will create their own consequences
Mexico should thrive in the 2040s as they have a great demographic set up
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How the World Works
Noam Chomsky
Summary
A combination of books Chomsky wrote in the 80s and 90s about America and it's role in the world. Fascinating read and insight into one of the great thinkers of the 21st century
Rating: 5/5
Notes
The US invaded Greece in 1947 and supported a horrendous war which led to 160k Greek deaths. This was the model for Vietnam and allowed American business to gain and thrive
US policies in the 3rd world consistently opposed democracies if they couldn’t be controlled as real democracies believe government should respond to the needs of their own population rather than those of US investors
US-run contra forces in the 3rd world isn’t ordering killing - it’s brutal sadistic torture (Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala)
From the Bolshevik revolution in 1917 till the collapse of the communist governments in eastern europe in the 80s, it was possible to justify every US attack as defense against the Soviets
If you want a global system that’s subordinated to the needs of US investors, you can’t let pieces of it wander off. It’s clearly stated in the documents of record
The US wants ‘stability’ meaning security for the upper classes and large foreign businesses
Solid case for impeaching every American president since World War 2 either outright as war criminals or involved in serious war crimes
El Salvador and Nicaragua were not covered by the US media in the 70s when US-supported brutal torture and murder were taking place
In the early 80s, America’s friends slaughtered 10s of thousands of Guatemalans with countless others tortured and raped
After Vietnam, the major US policy goal has been to maximize repression and suffering of countries demonstrated by their violence - blocked other countries from seeking aid
The US regularly carries out or supports aggression
For most of the 20th century, the US was the dominant economic power and used economic warfare as a weapon ranging from illegal embargoes to enforcement of weak IMF rules with their military becoming pre-eminent
The US tries to avoid negotiations with countries as the US fears it will lose and other countries will be better off
When a state has huge debts, it must divert the population from what’s happening and they do this by inspiring fear of our enemies (Russia in Europe)
The real enemy of the US has always been ‘the poor who seek to plunder the rich’. In America, it’s the opposite and has been for generations
‘The war on drugs’ was a manufactured media blitz by the US leadership to distract the population, increase repression in inner cities and build support for attack on civil liberties
The US government blocks international effort to seek peace (Russia and Ukraine)
Major media are large companies owned and interlinked with even larger conglomerates. The market is the advertisers and the product is audiences
The power in the US lies in the hands of people who determine investment decisions as they determine production, distribution and staff the government. They want a passive, quiescent population
The struggle of freedom is never over and requires active and sustained efforts
One important consequence of globalization is it extends the third world model to industrial nations where the average person has their jobs shipped away while the rich and elite continue to amass massive amounts of wealth
We’ve moved to an international state with the IMF, World Bank, G7 & EU, WEF where the general population doesn’t know what’s happening and it doesn’t know it doesn’t know
If the borrowing the US has done was used for constructive purposes like investment or infrastructure, the US would be better off, but it was used to enrich the rich - for consumption, financial manipulation and speculation which are all harmful
The class warfare of the last few decades has successfully weakened popular organizations leaving people to feel isolated
The US is so deeply in debt to the international financial community because of debt that they have a lock on US policy
Many of the large number of security council resolutions vetoed by the US have to do with Israeli aggression or atrocities
Invaders typically use local collaborators to run things for them by playing upon existing rivalries to get onne group to work for them against another
European wars were wars of extermination. If we were to be honest about history, we would simply describe it as barbarian invasion
There has always been racism but it developed as a leading principle of thought in the context of colonialism.
A standard technique of belief formation goes along with oppression
In the US, you’re not allowed to talk about the class differences, which is the real issue
When the US establishment talks about jobs, it means profits for its corporations
The elite are masters and they follow what Adam Smith said about ‘the vile maxim’ - all for ourselves and nothing for anyone else
People who aren’t owners and investors have nothing much to say in the US
Jefferson warned against banking institutions and corporations and said if they grow, aristocrats would’ve won and the revolution would’ve been lost
The ‘Free market’ is for the poor. We have a dual system - protection for the rich and market discipline for everyone else
There’s been a considerable increase in inequality and has the American society moving towards a third world model, thereby seeing increased crime and signs of social disintegration
A huge area of the media is dedicated to diverting people and making them more stupid and passive
There’s nothing individualistic about corporations who are totalitarian in nature
Free trade agreements result in reduced wages for local employees while predominantly benefiting the rich consumer while also destroying unions
Operation Paper Clip imported large number of known Nazi criminals
The American army’s counter-insurgency literature begins with an analysis of the German experience in Europe written with the co-operation of Naxi officials (instruments of statecraft - book)
US involvement in Chile with the coup in 1973 to reduce social democracy
The threat of a good empire is what the US worried about with reforms on uncontrolled capitalism
The US killed a few million people and destoryed 3 countries during the Vietnam war
A huge amount of business propaganda is to create wants
The answers to solve all these issues is to organize. Being alone you can’t do anything but if you join with other people, you can make changes
Under capitalism, investment is supposed to be as risk free as possible. No competition wants free markets - what they want is power
The government subsidizes corporations’ costs, protects them from market risks and lets them keep the profits
There’s never been much difference between the 2 business parties and the differences are disappearing
The CIA has been involved in drug running for generations (the politics of heroin book)
You need something to frighten people with, to prevent them from paying attention to what’s really happening to them. You have to engender fear and hatred
The first world lives in a highly indoctrinated society
Neoliberalism is nothing more than the imperial formula: free markets for you and plenty of protection for me. The rich would never accept it but they’re happy to impose it on the poor
The UN does mostly what US business wants
‘Politics is the shadow cast on society by big business’ - John Devery
If people dedicate themselves to organizing and activism, we’ll gain access to broader audiences
If you extrapolate to the future, it’s very ugly but the point is it’s not inevitable. It can be changed but we can’t change things till we understand them.
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